• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
Sarah Akbari; Teymour Mohamadi; Hamid Reza Arbab; Reza Taleblou
Abstract
Oil prices and other oil-products prices are connected to each other and their price volatilities are parallel. Firms which are using crude oil in their products are facing a risk of price volatility which has different reactions in each era and is known under different oil regimes. For example lubricant ...
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Oil prices and other oil-products prices are connected to each other and their price volatilities are parallel. Firms which are using crude oil in their products are facing a risk of price volatility which has different reactions in each era and is known under different oil regimes. For example lubricant industry is completely connected to the oil price. With this philosophy when the economy faced volatility the market players faced loss and so to overcome this issue they began to hedge themselves with another commodity. This hedging process in different regimes has different rates. So there is a need to introduce a new model. From the work of Hamiltonian (1989) oil price has its own volatility and regimes so to this attitude there is an effort to calculate an efficient hedging ratio with regime switching dynamic constant correlation. In this article, monthly data of oil and gold prices for about 10 years from 2010 till 2020 is used and the model is programed with MATLAB. The result showed that the efficient hedge ratio for the first regime (first major change in price of two markets) is 66 percent and the second (second major change in price of two markets) one is 26 percent.
• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
ELHAM GHOLAMPOUR; Teymour Mohamadi; Asghar Abolhasani Hastiani; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
The extant study was conducted to examine the economic effects of an oil supply shock, assess the response of Iran's GDP[1] to oil supply shocks specific to the main oil exporting countries, and oil-based Global Vector Autoregression Model (GVAR-Oil) throughout 1976Q2-2016Q4 covering 27 country-region ...
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The extant study was conducted to examine the economic effects of an oil supply shock, assess the response of Iran's GDP[1] to oil supply shocks specific to the main oil exporting countries, and oil-based Global Vector Autoregression Model (GVAR-Oil) throughout 1976Q2-2016Q4 covering 27 country-region cases. The consequences caused by the positive oil supply shock of the USA included an actual increase in the GDP of oil-importing countries in both developed and emerging markets, an inflation decline in most countries, and rising stock prices worldwide. In particular, Iran-specific oil-supply shock had a minor impact on the global economy because of the increase in the oil production rate of Saudi Arabia. In contrast, a negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia led to an instant and permanent rise in oil prices. According to countries' vulnerability findings, the economies of Saudi Arabia and Iran were more influenced by negative oil supply shocks compared to Indonesia and Norway. The present study indicated that Saudi Arabia-specific negative oil supply shock had a different effect than other major oil-exporting countries.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
hosein amirrahimi; Seyyed Shamseddin Hosseini; Seyyed Mohammad Reza Seyyed Noorani; Teymour Mohammadi; Esmaeil Safarzadeh
Abstract
In recent years, privatization in the downstream industries of oil and gas , has been one of the most important measures taken to change and improve the business environment and remove barriers of production, as well as to implement of the general policies of Article 44 of the Constitution. This study ...
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In recent years, privatization in the downstream industries of oil and gas , has been one of the most important measures taken to change and improve the business environment and remove barriers of production, as well as to implement of the general policies of Article 44 of the Constitution. This study intends to check out eleven variables related to the performance of six companies: Isfahan Oil Refinery, Bandar Abbas Oil Refinery, Tehran Oil Refinery, Lavan Oil Refinery, Shiraz Oil Refinery and Tabriz Oil Refinery by DID (fuzzy) method and compare it with control groups in order to Assess the privatization status of these companies. The results of this study show that two variables out of the eleven variables -, the ratio of general administrative and sales costs to revenues and the number of staff before and after the transfer, were significant for the control group. In other words, the employment situation and general administrative and sales costs in the companies under review were more unsatisfactory than the control group and in this regard, they had poor performance. This shows that in practice, the transfer of these companies has not affected the employment situation, positively.
Hossein Yadegari; Teymour Mohamadi; Hamid Amadeh; abdorrasoul ghasemi,; hamidreza mostafaee
Abstract
The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have made its price forecast always considered by researchers, oil market participants, governments, and policymakers. Because the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, ongoing studies should be done ...
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The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have made its price forecast always considered by researchers, oil market participants, governments, and policymakers. Because the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, ongoing studies should be done to make more accurate and reliable estimates over time. In this paper, a combination of GM (1,1) and ARIMA models and a hybrid model (GM-ARIMA) for crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The Brent crude oil price data for seasonal (2015Q1-2021Q2), monthly(2020m3-2020m12), and weekly(w12-2020: w16-2021) periods were used to examine this method. The results show that based on the evaluation criteria of mean absolute error percentage (MAPE) and square mean square error (RMSE), the evaluation criteria of MAPE and RMSE in the combined GM-ARIMA model are always lower than the GM and ARIMA models alone. Therefore, the GM-ARIMA hybrid model will be able to predict more accurately than the GM and ARIMA models. Therefore, for more accurate prediction, the GM-ARIMA hybrid model can be used instead of single models.
• سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
younes khodaparast; Teymour Mohamadi; Hossein Tavakolian
Abstract
Increasing oil consumption efficiency in the household and production sectors, as well as improving oil production technology, are among the most important factors that can improve the economic situation of oil-rich countries. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of oil consumption productivity (demand ...
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Increasing oil consumption efficiency in the household and production sectors, as well as improving oil production technology, are among the most important factors that can improve the economic situation of oil-rich countries. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of oil consumption productivity (demand shocks) and technological oil production shocks (supply shocks) on macroeconomic variables are investigated in the form of the Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Annual data for the years 1352-1396 have been used to estimate the model parameters. The results show that oil consumption efficiency shocks in the household and production sectors have a positive and significant effect on oil exports, oil investment, total employment, and government spending. However, the shocks of oil consumption efficiency in the household sector reduce oil production and household’s oil consumption and increase inflation, while the effect of the shocks of oil consumption efficiency in the production sector on these three variables is inverse. Also, technological oil production shocks have a positive effect on oil investment, oil production and export, non-oil employment, total consumption, government spending, and inflation, and in contrast, slightly reduce employment in the oil sector and oil consumption. Given that the above three shocks have positive effects on oil exports, oil investment, employment, government revenue, and even the level of consumption and non-oil production, appropriate planning and policy-making that stimulates consumer productivity and improves oil production technology should be on the agenda of policymakers.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
abdorrasoul ghasemi; Teymour Mohamadi
Abstract
Investigating the effects of climate change on different aspects of social life has been the focus of research in recent decades. The importance of energy for development and growth as well as pollution caused by energy carriers has made it necessary to assess the impact of climate change on the consumption ...
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Investigating the effects of climate change on different aspects of social life has been the focus of research in recent decades. The importance of energy for development and growth as well as pollution caused by energy carriers has made it necessary to assess the impact of climate change on the consumption of various energy carriers including natural gas. This study designed a model for natural gas demand in which in addition to the conventional economic factors, climate variables are considered. Then, we estimate this model for Iran during the years 2003-2015. In addition, variables of GDP and electricity consumption as well as trend variable had the greatest effect on natural gas consumption in the country.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
sanaz karimpour; Abdolrasoul Ghasemi; Teymour Mohamadi
Abstract
Economic sanctions in the field of international relations affect the trade pattern of countries. One of the effective channels of sanctions is exports (as the most important source of foreign exchange supply for countries). In this regard, oil exports to OPEC member countries, especially Iran, are among ...
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Economic sanctions in the field of international relations affect the trade pattern of countries. One of the effective channels of sanctions is exports (as the most important source of foreign exchange supply for countries). In this regard, oil exports to OPEC member countries, especially Iran, are among the most important economic revenues and have a high share in the country's budget. In the present study, the effect of sanctions on the pattern of trade in Iranian crude oil and petroleum products and also the effect of these sanctions on OPEC member countries in the framework of the generalized gravity model using panel data econometric models have been investigated. The research model is based on statistical data from 1988 to 2018 in the form of four periods of sanctions, including the first period of US sanctions, EU sanctions, UN sanctions, and the second period of US sanctions. The findings show that US-era sanctions and EU sanctions have had less of an impact on Iran's oil exports, but UN sanctions have had a significant impact on these oil exports and Iran's share of OPEC exports. According to research findings, other OPEC member countries have not had a significant impact on the replacement of the Iranian oil market, and this shortage has been mainly met by countries outside the OPEC.
Khalil Ghadimi; Teymour Mohamadi; Hamid Amadeh; Atefe Taklif
Abstract
Gas supply development and the upward trend of
Abstract
The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate ...
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Gas supply development and the upward trend of
Abstract
The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of natural gas price liberalization on the resumption of the gas supply system in Iran. In order to measure the fluctuation of the natural gas distribution system, in the first stage, Lyapunov's view was calculated by using the Rosen-Einstein method, based on the consumption of natural gas in the household sector during the period from 2005 to 2018. In the next step, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. According to the results of the model, the price of natural gas after the law enforcement of subsidies has led to a reduction in the resilience of the gas supply system; however, before implementing the targeted subsidy policy, the natural gas price has a positive resilience on gas distribution system fluctuations. This could be resulted from the real fall in natural gas prices due to inflation and a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the years after the targeted subsidy law came into force.
Masoud Shirazi; Abdolrasoul Ghasemi; Teymour Mohamadi; Ali Faridzad; Atefeh Taklif
Abstract
This research conducts a quantitative comparative analysis of the dynamic international crude oil trade network of Iran by using the network connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (2015) and also the asymmetric short-term and long-term impact of the increasing and decreasing key driving factors ...
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This research conducts a quantitative comparative analysis of the dynamic international crude oil trade network of Iran by using the network connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (2015) and also the asymmetric short-term and long-term impact of the increasing and decreasing key driving factors and obstacles in the crude oil trade development through the gravityrelation and by using the nonlinear panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model during 1980–2017. Results indicated the dynamic spillover flow of the crude oil trade of Iran during the investigated period of time. Moreover, the crude oil trade flow of Iran is a net shock transmitter to Middle East and a net shock receiver from the crude oil trade flow in countries of America, Eastern Europe- Eurasia, Africa, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific, respectively. The focus on the divided regional trade scheme and adopting the biased foreign trade policies by Iran may not lead to the vulnerability reduction of its economy from crude oil trade flow volatilities. Findings also reveal the asymmetric behavior of the crude oil bilateral trade flow in response to the increasing and decreasing of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita variables in both crude oil exporting and importing countries and international crude oil transportation costs in the short-term and long-term period that it can be used in identifying the effective factors on the volatility transmission to adjust the crude oil trade flow. Therefore, concerning the high degree of the integration in the international crude oil trade network of Iran, it seems that it is necessary to prioritize cooperative over competitive behavior in the crude oil trade of Iran and respond appropriately to market shocks and volatilities during the time (risk management) in the economic plan of the country.
mahtab mehrasa; Teymour Mohamadi
Abstract
Regarding the role of the energy market, especially oil, on the economy of countries, it is important to identify the future evolution of the market. In this respect, predicting the changeable extreme evolution of the oil price is crucial for decision and policy makers. This study attempts to investigate ...
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Regarding the role of the energy market, especially oil, on the economy of countries, it is important to identify the future evolution of the market. In this respect, predicting the changeable extreme evolution of the oil price is crucial for decision and policy makers. This study attempts to investigate the maximum changes of OPEC’s oil price by employing the concept of Value at Risk. To this end, GARCH family models based on the normal and extreme distribution were used, and it is expected that the focus on the latter in forecasting Value at Risk, especially in the face of extreme events, may end up in more realistic results. The results of the backtesting of models show that the ARMA-GARCH-EVT model predicts better than the other ones.
Ali Takroosta; Parisa Mohajeri; Teymour Mohamadi; Abbas Shakeri
Abstract
Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, ...
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Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, we disentangled oil shocks and studied their impacts on OPEC’s GDP growth and inflation, using a Panel-VAR for 1994:1-2016:4. Our results highlight that among oil shocks, the oil price shocks stemming from the political risk of OPEC countries have the most significant impact on the OPEC's economic growth, while not having any significant impact on inflation of the countries. We also learned that oil supply shocks could also boost economic growth and increase inflation rates in OPEC countries, although these increases are not significant. Other oil price shocks will only lead to higher inflation in these countries without affecting OPEC's economic growth.
Teimour Mohamadi; Abdol Rasoul Ghasemi; Amir Nekounam
Abstract
This paper examines the response of the natural gas price to the crude oil price in regional markets.The price of natural gas varies in regional markets, mostly follow the crude oil price. Natural gas and crude oil are substitute in consumption and also complement in production. Economic variables such ...
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This paper examines the response of the natural gas price to the crude oil price in regional markets.The price of natural gas varies in regional markets, mostly follow the crude oil price. Natural gas and crude oil are substitute in consumption and also complement in production. Economic variables such as the crude oil and natural gas prices have inflammations and severe fluctuations over time that conventional linear regressions do not fit these fluctuations. The regime Switching Model provides a flexible and dynamic framework for nonlinear models and sudden reciprocal transfers. In this paper, by using the Markov switching model framework, the impact of the crude oil price on natural gas price has been measured during the period of the January 1992 to June 2017. The results show that in some regimes the price of crude oil has a direct effect on the price of natural gas and in some other ones has a reversible effect. In Europe, the first lag of crude oil price has a reverse effect for 1 month, and 18 months of direct effect, and the second lag of oil price in both regimes has a direct effect on the natural gas price. However for Asia in both regimes, the impact of oil price on natural gas price is straight and the prices are in the first regime for 28 months and 26 months under the second regime.
Abdolrasoul Ghasemi; Atefeh Taklif; Teymour Mohammadi; fereshteh mohammadian
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to evaluate general strategies of the national document of Iran's energy strategy according to World Energy Council scenarios and based on robust strategy framework, to doing so, a standard political framework and its requirements was introduced and then surveyed to ...
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The main purpose of this study is to evaluate general strategies of the national document of Iran's energy strategy according to World Energy Council scenarios and based on robust strategy framework, to doing so, a standard political framework and its requirements was introduced and then surveyed to realize which strategies are robust to apply the mentioned political framework in the world depicted by each scenario. In compare to standard political framework in National Energy Strategy Document, no suggestion on energy sources diversification and new energies is proposed and no strategy is seen in the field of energy industry safety and to reduce the political and economic risks of investors. Eventually based on robust strategy, we only have two robust strategy in research and development context. But, in other seven political domain no robust strategy is observed, especially in Hard Rock Scenario, no strategy was seen in five axis from eight axis of main political context. Thus, it is advised to review the existing strategies according to opportunities and threats available in any scenario, and to formulate a comprehensive pattern for national energy policy accordingly. In this regards, it seems very important to design a mechanism to develop new energies, to reduce the political and economic risks for oil companies, to create a surveillance and evaluation system for national energy data, to provide a legal mechanism for negotiation, and finally to select an administrator capable to aggregate resources to implement the strategies in the best way possible
Seyed Mohammad Shahab Tabatabaee Atabak; Teymour Mohammadi; Morteza Khorsandi
Abstract
Market power refers to the ability to affecting to the market. The firm has a pricing power in the monopoly market. One of the types of monopolies is the cartel. Two important features of behavior in form of the cartel are the impact on the amount of production and price. In terms of production, the ...
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Market power refers to the ability to affecting to the market. The firm has a pricing power in the monopoly market. One of the types of monopolies is the cartel. Two important features of behavior in form of the cartel are the impact on the amount of production and price. In terms of production, the cartel controls the production through coordination among the members, and in terms of impact on prices, it affects the price of the market by controlling production. In this study, to investigate the market power of OPEC, this issue will be discussed that whether OPEC acts as a cartel, or not? Therefore, to measure the market power of OPEC, The behavior and coordination of OPEC members’ production decisions are being studied. The research hypotheses are as follows, there is coordination in behavior and production decisions between the production of OPEC and the production of OPEC members, and total production of OPEC determines oil prices in the global oil markets. To prove the first hypothesis, used ARDL bounds testing approach of co-integration, and for the second hypothesis, used Toda-Yamamoto tests. The data used in this study includes the production of OPEC members, global oil prices (Brent, Dubai and WTI), in the period of 1994-2016, quarterly and monthly and 1980-2016, annual. The results indicates that there is no long-term relationship between the production of OPEC members and total production of OPEC, also causality from oil prices to OPEC production, also the direction of causality is from oil prices to OPEC production.
Shirkou Bahadori; Teymour Mohammadi; Farshad Momeni; Abbas Kazeminajafabadi
Abstract
In this study the effect of petroleum contracts on Iran and Saudi Arabia’s oil production trend has investigated. Disaggregated approach has utilized to investigate the effect of petroleum contracts. In this approach, optimal production of the fields of above mentioned countries, has been evaluated ...
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In this study the effect of petroleum contracts on Iran and Saudi Arabia’s oil production trend has investigated. Disaggregated approach has utilized to investigate the effect of petroleum contracts. In this approach, optimal production of the fields of above mentioned countries, has been evaluated in two scenarios. Then by summation of production data of all fields, production trend of these two countries has been calculated. In the first scenario, it is assumed that control of oil production is in the hands of host country, while control of production in the second scenario is determined based on the kind of contracts which the host country has had during its oil production history. Based on the estimated production trend of two countries, it is observed that in the case which International Oil Company controls the production, rate of oil extraction is more than the case which production is controlled by the host country. Also by increasing the portion of International Oil Company from the produced oil, it increases the production rate to maximize its own net present value.
Abbas Shakeri; Hamed Najafi; HAMED najafi jezeh
Abstract
This paper introduces the theoretical foundations of oil vulnerability index for oil exporting countries. In order to identify this index, several indicators related to both economic risk and demand risk were presented. This index was calculated for Iranian economy from 1990 to 2015. Regarding to the ...
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This paper introduces the theoretical foundations of oil vulnerability index for oil exporting countries. In order to identify this index, several indicators related to both economic risk and demand risk were presented. This index was calculated for Iranian economy from 1990 to 2015. Regarding to the economic risk, seven different channels based on the extension of literature discussing the Dutch disease were introduced. These channels include income, government revenue, spending, the current account, exchange rate, technology and government spending volatility channels. Regarding to the demand risk, the focus was on two main components: oil market concentration risk (OMCR) and political risk. For calculation the demand risk, in the first step, the OMCR was calculated based on the share of Iran's oil-importing countries from Iran’s oil export. Then depending on the stability of the bilateral political relations, the dependence of Iran’s oil importers on oil import from Iran and their ability to meet their needs from other countries, the political risk indicator was calculated. Finally, by adjusting OMCR with political risk, geopolitical OMCR was calculated. The results show that between 2002 and 2004, with the diversification of export routes of Iran's oil, creation of oil fund reserves, diversification of foreign exchange source income, etc., OVI was decreased significantly. After 2010, with the decrease in the diversity of oil exports routes, with the imposition of sanctions and with limiting the oil export to certain countries, OVI became the worst.
